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Increasing concerns are present regarding the chance of armed conflict among Horn of Africa countries, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as aggressive rhetoric has escalated in recent weeks.

What Did Ethiopia Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's calls for entry to the Red Sea through Eritrea has triggered a heated war of words.

The Ethiopian leader first openly declared in last year that his country's maritime access was an existential matter, statements that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Relations between the two countries have frequently been strained. After a prolonged battle for independence, Eritrea, which has a long maritime frontage, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in 1993, making it landlocked.

In 1998, a territorial conflict erupted in which numerous people died.

Latest Comments from Ethiopian Officials

Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted sovereignty of Eritrean maritime facility of the port of Assab – some 60 km from the border - and implied the wish to take it by force.

In early September, Abiy said the country's "blunder" of losing access to the sea as a because of Eritrea's separation would be "corrected soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be restored "using武力".

Eritrean Reaction to the Threats

Despite ongoing threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been restricted to brief comments on online platforms from Communications Head Yemane G..

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's push for sea access describing it as "dangerous" and a "harmful plan" of "territorial claims" – a policy of reclaiming lost territory.

Eritrean authorities warned on mid-September that moves to justify "obvious provocation" would have major implications for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Activities on the Ground

Currently, there are few indications of large-scale army activities in the border areas between the two countries.

However, in Ethiopia, state television has displayed completion events of numerous trainees at various military training camps.

The head of human resources department of the military, the officer, commented lately in an interview that the defense forces was in a "reliable position" as "tens of thousands of recruits" were enlisting, which he said was "a signal to our adversaries".

Past Background of the Dispute

For more than half a century from 1890, Eritrea was governed by Italian colonisers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then controlled by the UK forces before becoming a integrated region of Ethiopia.

However in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor ended this system and Eritrea became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A extended internal conflict occurred, ending with military reversal in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then approved by the population in a plebiscite in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the leadership in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they fell out over the precise positioning of their common border, leading to war in 1998.

Even though this finished in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the both countries stayed at in dispute.

This changed in 2018, when the Prime Minister made approaches to Eritrean President the president. The both leaders signed a announcement that the hostilities was finished – a move that won Abiy the prestigious award.

The two governments were then allies in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 civil war in Tigray.

However diplomatic connections have since broken down again.